Today / Australia - NPL Tasmania / Launceston City vs Launceston United

Launceston City vs Launceston United Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Matchday 14 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 10:15

Launceston City

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDL

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Launceston United

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 85% chance

Combined xG of 5.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.6% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-10.5%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.1%1 1-01.6%1-12.0%1-21.3%1-30.5%1-4+0.2%2 2-03.4%2-14.4%2-22.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.9%3-16.3%3-24.0%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-017.5%4+-122.4%4+-214.3%4+-36.1%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.0% 93.5% 1.07 -27.2%

Draw 17.2% 12.5% 8.00 +22.6%

Away win 14.7% 6.3% 16.00 +81.1%

Over 2.5 79.6% 87.7% 1.14 -9.3%

Over 3.5 57.7% 74.6% 1.34 -22.7%

BTTS 64.5% 61.7% 1.62 +4.5%

Home O1.5 77.8% 94.3% 1.06 -17.5%

Away O1.5 37.5% 25.0% 4.00 +50.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 15.5%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)4.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob64.5%

H 68% / xG 4.3-1.3 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 6.9%

#2 3–1 6.3%

#3 5–1 6.0%

#4 4–0 5.4%

#5 3–0 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Launceston City4.3

Launceston United1.3

COMBINED 5.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.6% · O3.5 PROB 57.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LAUNCESTON CITY · PPG 1.50

LAUNCESTON UNITED · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

85%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.06 for Home, form 1.50 vs 0.33 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Launceston City (H) 68.0%

ODDS 1.07 · IMPLIED 93.5% EV -27.2%

Draw 17.2%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +22.6%

Launceston United (A) 14.7%

ODDS 16.00 · IMPLIED 6.3% EV +81.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Launceston City face Launceston United in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Launceston City a 68% chance, the draw 17% and Launceston United 15%, so Launceston City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.3 for Launceston City and 1.3 for Launceston United (5.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Launceston City are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.33 for Launceston United. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +58.7%. This match finished 4-2.

Launceston City vs Launceston United Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

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