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Launceston City vs Launceston United Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Regular Season - 14 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 10:15

Launceston City

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Launceston United

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.4%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.1%1 1-01.4%1-11.8%1-21.2%1-30.5%1-4+0.2%2 2-03.2%2-14.1%2-22.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.7%3-16.1%3-24.0%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-017.7%4+-123.0%4+-214.9%4+-36.5%4+-4+2.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.1% — — —

Draw 17.2% — — —

Away win 14.7% — — —

Over 2.5 79.4% — — —

Over 3.5 57.0% — — —

BTTS 64.3% — — —

Home O1.5 77.8% — — —

Away O1.5 38.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)4.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob64.3%

H 68% / xG 4.4-1.3 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 6.8%

#2 3–1 6.1%

#3 5–1 6.0%

#4 4–0 5.2%

#5 3–0 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Launceston City4.4

Launceston United1.3

COMBINED 5.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.4% · O3.5 PROB 57.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LAUNCESTON CITY · PPG 1.50

LAUNCESTON UNITED · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.50), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Launceston City (H) 68.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Launceston United (A) 14.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Launceston City face Launceston United in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Launceston City a 68% chance, the draw 17% and Launceston United 15%, so Launceston City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.4 for Launceston City and 1.3 for Launceston United (5.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Launceston City are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.33 for Launceston United.

Launceston City vs Launceston United Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

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