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Ulverstone vs Glenorchy K. Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 04:30

Ulverstone

PPG 0.57 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Glenorchy K.

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.4% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-17.3%0-27.8%0-35.6%0-4+5.0%1 1-04.2%1-19.0%1-29.7%1-36.9%1-4+6.1%2 2-02.6%2-15.6%2-26.0%2-34.3%2-4+3.8%3 3-01.1%3-12.3%3-22.5%3-31.8%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.1% 23.8% 4.20 +3.3%

Draw 20.6% 21.7% 4.60 -3.1%

Away win 54.2% 66.7% 1.50 -18.7%

Over 2.5 64.4% 75.2% 1.33 -14.3%

Over 3.5 42.3% 57.8% 1.73 -26.8%

BTTS 62.4% 71.4% 1.40 -12.6%

Home O1.5 38.2% 43.5% 2.30 -12.1%

Away O1.5 52.6% 75.2% 1.33 -30.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob62.4%

A 54% / xG 1.2-2.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2✓ 7.8%

#4 1–3 6.9%

#5 0–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulverstone1.2

Glenorchy K.2.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ULVERSTONE · PPG 0.57

GLENORCHY K. · PPG 0.38

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.57), Away POOR (0.38)

Win probability 1X2

Ulverstone (H) 25.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +3.3%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -3.1%

Glenorchy K. (A) 54.2%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -18.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulverstone face Glenorchy K. in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulverstone a 25% chance, the draw 21% and Glenorchy K. 54%, so Glenorchy K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Ulverstone and 2.1 for Glenorchy K. (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulverstone are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 0.38 for Glenorchy K.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Ulverstone vs Glenorchy K. Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

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