Today / Australia - NPL Tasmania / Clarence Zebras vs Launceston

Clarence Zebras vs Launceston Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 04:30

Clarence Zebras

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Launceston

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDL

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 67.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-15.6%0-26.3%0-34.7%0-4+4.5%1 1-03.6%1-18.0%1-29.1%1-36.8%1-4+6.5%2 2-02.6%2-15.8%2-26.6%2-34.9%2-4+4.7%3 3-01.2%3-12.8%3-23.2%3-32.4%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.4%4+-21.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.4% 39.2% 2.55 -21.1%

Draw 20.7% 25.6% 3.90 -11.6%

Away win 53.9% 47.6% 2.10 +13.2%

Over 2.5 66.8% 76.9% 1.30 -13.2%

Over 3.5 44.1% 60.6% 1.65 -27.2%

BTTS 63.2% 80.0% 1.25 -21.0%

Home O1.5 44.6% 59.5% 1.68 -25.1%

Away O1.5 68.2% 67.1% 1.49 +1.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 12.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob63.2%

A 54% / xG 1.4-2.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 1–2✓ 9.1%

#3 1–3 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Clarence Zebras1.4

Launceston2.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CLARENCE ZEBRAS · PPG 1.43

LAUNCESTON · PPG 2.40

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs Home AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Clarence Zebras (H) 25.4%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -21.1%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -11.6%

Launceston (A) 53.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Clarence Zebras face Launceston in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Clarence Zebras a 25% chance, the draw 21% and Launceston 54%, so Launceston are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Clarence Zebras and 2.3 for Launceston (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Clarence Zebras are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 2.40 for Launceston. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Clarence Zebras vs Launceston Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

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