Today / Australia - NPL Tasmania / Launceston vs Kingborough L.

Launceston vs Kingborough L. Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 06:45

Launceston

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kingborough L.

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-14.1%0-25.4%0-34.8%0-4+5.9%1 1-02.4%1-16.2%1-28.2%1-37.3%1-4+9.1%2 2-01.8%2-14.8%2-26.3%2-35.5%2-4+6.9%3 3-00.9%3-12.4%3-23.2%3-32.8%3-4+3.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.3%4+-21.7%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.7% — — —

Draw 20.5% — — —

Away win 53.9% — — —

Over 2.5 67.1% — — —

Over 3.5 46.9% — — —

BTTS 63.8% — — —

Home O1.5 46.1% — — —

Away O1.5 67.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob63.8%

A 54% / xG 1.5-2.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.2%

#2 1–3 7.3%

#3 1–1 6.2%

#4 2–2 6.3%

#5 2–3 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Launceston1.5

Kingborough L.2.6

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 46.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LAUNCESTON · PPG 1.71

KINGBOROUGH L. · PPG 1.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.71), Away GOOD (1.88)

Win probability 1X2

Launceston (H) 25.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kingborough L. (A) 53.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Launceston face Kingborough L. in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Launceston a 26% chance, the draw 21% and Kingborough L. 54%, so Kingborough L. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Launceston and 2.6 for Kingborough L. (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Launceston are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.88 for Kingborough L..

Launceston vs Kingborough L. Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL Tasmania Predictions