Today / Australia - NPL Tasmania / South East Utd vs Launceston Utd

South East Utd vs Launceston Utd Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 04:30

South East Utd

PPG 1.29 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Launceston Utd

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.5%0-24.3%0-32.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.3%1-19.8%1-27.7%1-34.0%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.7%2-26.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.3%3-15.2%3-24.1%3-32.1%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.5%4+-22.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 57.8% 1.73 -24.8%

Draw 23.6% 24.4% 4.10 -1.9%

Away win 32.9% 29.9% 3.35 +10.2%

Over 2.5 62.3% 78.1% 1.28 -20.3%

Over 3.5 40.1% 64.5% 1.55 -37.8%

BTTS 62.4% 80.0% 1.25 -22.0%

Home O1.5 53.0% 75.8% 1.32 -30.0%

Away O1.5 50.2% 56.8% 1.76 -11.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.4%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South East Utd1.8

Launceston Utd1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH EAST UTD · PPG 1.29

LAUNCESTON UTD · PPG 0.40

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs P(Home)=43.5%

Win probability 1X2

South East Utd (H) 43.5%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -24.8%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -1.9%

Launceston Utd (A) 32.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

South East Utd face Launceston Utd in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South East Utd a 44% chance, the draw 24% and Launceston Utd 33%, so South East Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for South East Utd and 1.6 for Launceston Utd (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South East Utd are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.40 for Launceston Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 4-1.

South East Utd vs Launceston Utd Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL Tasmania Predictions