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South Hobart vs Ulverstone Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 04:00

South Hobart

PPG 3.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ulverstone

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 82.6% vs bookmaker-implied 98.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.1%0-20.0%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-01.1%1-10.6%1-20.2%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-03.1%2-11.8%2-20.5%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.9%3-13.4%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-045.9%4+-126.5%4+-27.6%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 82.6% 98.0% 1.02 -15.8%

Draw 10.9% 5.9% 17.00 +51.2%

Away win 6.5% 1.0% 101.00 +333.9%

Over 2.5 79.8% 91.7% 1.09 -13.0%

Over 3.5 62.9% 84.0% 1.19 -25.1%

BTTS 52.6% 34.5% 2.90 +52.5%

Home O1.5 77.8% — — —

Away O1.5 19.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)5.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob52.6%

H 83% / xG 5.7-0.6 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–0 9.4%

#2 4–0 8.3%

#3 3–0 5.9%

#4 5–1 5.5%

#5 4–1 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South Hobart5.7

Ulverstone0.6

COMBINED 6.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.8% · O3.5 PROB 62.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH HOBART · PPG 3.00

ULVERSTONE · PPG 0.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

South Hobart (H) 82.6%

ODDS 1.02 · IMPLIED 98.0% EV -15.8%

Draw 10.9%

ODDS 17.00 · IMPLIED 5.9% EV +51.2%

Ulverstone (A) 6.5%

ODDS 101.00 · IMPLIED 1.0% EV +333.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

South Hobart face Ulverstone in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Hobart a 83% chance, the draw 11% and Ulverstone 7%, so South Hobart are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.7 for South Hobart and 0.6 for Ulverstone (6.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-0. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Hobart are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Ulverstone. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +333.9%.

South Hobart vs Ulverstone Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

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