Today / Australia - NPL Tasmania / Devonport vs South East Utd

Devonport vs South East Utd Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 04:30

Devonport

PPG 2.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

South East Utd

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.8% vs bookmaker-implied 90.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-10.8%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.0%1-13.0%1-21.1%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-07.6%2-15.7%2-22.1%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.6%3-17.2%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-024.9%4+-118.7%4+-27.0%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.8% 90.1% 1.11 -20.3%

Draw 17.5% 13.9% 7.20 +15.6%

Away win 10.7% 7.7% 13.00 +23.5%

Over 2.5 68.4% 82.0% 1.22 -16.6%

Over 3.5 49.1% 70.4% 1.42 -30.3%

BTTS 53.2% 61.7% 1.62 -13.8%

Home O1.5 77.8% 90.9% 1.10 -14.4%

Away O1.5 21.2% 25.4% 3.94 -9.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.2%

H 72% / xG 3.8-0.8 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.6%

#2 4–0 9.2%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 5–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Devonport3.8

South East Utd0.8

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DEVONPORT · PPG 2.67

SOUTH EAST UTD · PPG 0.43

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.67), Away POOR (0.43) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Devonport (H) 71.8%

ODDS 1.11 · IMPLIED 90.1% EV -20.3%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV +15.6%

South East Utd (A) 10.7%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Devonport face South East Utd in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Devonport a 72% chance, the draw 18% and South East Utd 11%, so Devonport are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Devonport and 0.8 for South East Utd (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Devonport are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 0.43 for South East Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.5%.

Devonport vs South East Utd Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL Tasmania Predictions