Today / Australia - NPL Tasmania / Riverside vs Clarence Zebras

Riverside vs Clarence Zebras Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 04:30

Riverside

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Clarence Zebras

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-16.6%0-24.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.2%1-111.2%1-26.8%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.5%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.4%3-15.4%3-23.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.3%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 42.6% 2.35 +16.1%

Draw 24.4% 27.0% 3.70 -5.8%

Away win 26.2% 42.6% 2.35 -23.1%

Over 2.5 60.9% 73.5% 1.36 -17.2%

Over 3.5 37.4% 55.6% 1.80 -32.7%

BTTS 60.7% 74.1% 1.35 -18.1%

Home O1.5 53.0% 59.2% 1.69 -10.4%

Away O1.5 37.7% 59.9% 1.67 -37.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.7%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riverside1.7

Clarence Zebras1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

RIVERSIDE · PPG 1.86

CLARENCE ZEBRAS · PPG 1.57

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.86), Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Riverside (H) 49.4%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +16.1%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.8%

Clarence Zebras (A) 26.2%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -23.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Riverside face Clarence Zebras in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riverside a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Clarence Zebras 26%, so Riverside are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Riverside and 1.2 for Clarence Zebras (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riverside are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.57 for Clarence Zebras. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.1%.

Riverside vs Clarence Zebras Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

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