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Devonport vs South Hobart Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 04:30

Devonport

PPG 2.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

South Hobart

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-16.5%0-26.0%0-33.7%0-4+2.6%1 1-05.2%1-19.7%1-29.0%1-35.6%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.9%2-17.3%2-26.7%2-34.2%2-4+3.0%3 3-02.0%3-13.6%3-23.4%3-32.1%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.9%4+-21.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 32.3% 3.10 +11.0%

Draw 22.4% 26.0% 3.85 -8.3%

Away win 41.8% 54.1% 1.85 -22.7%

Over 2.5 63.9% 69.4% 1.44 -8.0%

Over 3.5 41.1% 50.0% 2.00 -17.8%

BTTS 63.3% 71.4% 1.40 -11.4%

Home O1.5 46.0% 44.1% 2.27 +4.4%

Away O1.5 50.2% 63.3% 1.58 -20.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.3%

A 42% / xG 1.5-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Devonport1.5

South Hobart1.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DEVONPORT · PPG 2.71

SOUTH HOBART · PPG 2.13

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.71) > Away EXCELLENT (2.13)

Win probability 1X2

Devonport (H) 35.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +11.0%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -8.3%

South Hobart (A) 41.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -22.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Devonport face South Hobart in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Devonport a 36% chance, the draw 22% and South Hobart 42%, so South Hobart are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Devonport and 1.9 for South Hobart (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Devonport are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 2.13 for South Hobart. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.0%.

Devonport vs South Hobart Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

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