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Portland Thorns W vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 02:00

Portland Thorns W

PPG 2.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-111.5%0-24.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.5%1-113.2%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.0%2-17.6%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.4%3-12.9%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 30.8% 3.25 +47.9%

Draw 28.7% 29.4% 3.40 -1.5%

Away win 25.8% 51.3% 1.95 -29.8%

Over 2.5 46.8% 51.3% 1.95 -8.7%

Over 3.5 26.4% 30.8% 3.25 -8.5%

BTTS 48.5% 54.6% 1.83 -11.2%

Home O1.5 35.0% 35.7% 2.80 -2.0%

Away O1.5 20.3% 48.3% 2.07 -34.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -7.8%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.5%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.4%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 15.5%

#4 0–1 11.5%

#5 2–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portland Thorns W1.2

NJ/NY Gotham FC W0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTLAND THORNS W · PPG 2.43

NJ/NY GOTHAM FC W · PPG 2.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.30, combined xG 2.01 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Portland Thorns W (H) 45.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +47.9%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -1.5%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W (A) 25.8%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -29.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portland Thorns W face NJ/NY Gotham FC W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portland Thorns W a 46% chance, the draw 29% and NJ/NY Gotham FC W 26%, so Portland Thorns W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Portland Thorns W and 0.9 for NJ/NY Gotham FC W (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portland Thorns W are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 2.00 for NJ/NY Gotham FC W. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +28.6%.

Portland Thorns W vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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