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Utah Royals W vs Orlando Pride W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 00:45

Utah Royals W

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Orlando Pride W

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-17.0%0-23.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.3%1-111.6%1-26.0%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.4%2-19.6%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.2%3-15.3%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.2%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 48.8% 2.05 +0.2%

Draw 24.6% 28.6% 3.50 -8.3%

Away win 26.5% 32.3% 3.10 -10.7%

Over 2.5 54.1% 58.8% 1.70 -8.0%

Over 3.5 33.2% 36.4% 2.75 -8.7%

BTTS 55.5% 63.7% 1.57 -12.9%

Home O1.5 53.0% 54.1% 1.85 -1.9%

Away O1.5 33.8% 40.8% 2.45 -17.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -7.8%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.5%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0✓ 11.3%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Utah Royals W1.7

Orlando Pride W1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UTAH ROYALS W · PPG 2.00

ORLANDO PRIDE W · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=48.9%

Win probability 1X2

Utah Royals W (H) 48.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +0.2%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.3%

Orlando Pride W (A) 26.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Utah Royals W face Orlando Pride W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Utah Royals W a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Orlando Pride W 27%, so Utah Royals W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Utah Royals W and 1.0 for Orlando Pride W (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Utah Royals W are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Orlando Pride W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Utah Royals W vs Orlando Pride W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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