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Gotham FC W vs Seattle Reign W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 16:00

Gotham FC W

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDD

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Seattle Reign W

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLDW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.2%0-18.6%0-22.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.6%1-110.9%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-16.8%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.7%3-12.9%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 69.0% 1.45 -23.6%

Draw 27.6% 25.6% 3.90 +4.6%

Away win 19.7% 15.6% 6.40 +15.7%

Over 2.5 39.6% 54.1% 1.85 -26.7%

Over 3.5 19.6% 31.3% 3.20 -22.4%

BTTS 46.3% 51.3% 1.95 -9.7%

Home O1.5 40.8% 62.5% 1.60 -34.7%

Away O1.5 18.8% 22.2% 4.50 -9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.3%

H 53% / xG 1.3-0.5 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.6%

#2 0–0 17.2%

#3 2–0 13.6%

#4 1–1 10.9%

#5 0–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gotham FC W1.3

Seattle Reign W0.5

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.6% · O3.5 PROB 19.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GOTHAM FC W · PPG 1.88

SEATTLE REIGN W · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.88) > Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Gotham FC W (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -23.6%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +4.6%

Seattle Reign W (A) 19.7%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +15.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gotham FC W face Seattle Reign W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gotham FC W a 53% chance, the draw 28% and Seattle Reign W 20%, so Gotham FC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Gotham FC W and 0.5 for Seattle Reign W (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gotham FC W are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.17 for Seattle Reign W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +15.7%. This match finished 3-2.

Gotham FC W vs Seattle Reign W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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