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North Carolina Courage W vs Utah Royals W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 23:45

North Carolina Courage W

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Utah Royals W

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-18.2%0-25.5%0-32.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.9%1-111.9%1-27.9%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-18.7%2-25.8%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.2%3-14.2%3-22.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 46.5% 2.15 -1.1%

Draw 25.0% 33.3% 3.00 -15.0%

Away win 29.0% 34.5% 2.90 -9.5%

Over 2.5 58.1% 54.1% 1.85 +7.5%

Over 3.5 35.3% 33.3% 3.00 +5.9%

BTTS 58.7% 61.7% 1.62 -4.9%

Home O1.5 46.3% 49.5% 2.02 -6.5%

Away O1.5 41.9% 39.4% 2.54 +6.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -7.8%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.7%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 0–0 6.1%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

North Carolina Courage W1.5

Utah Royals W1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTH CAROLINA COURAGE W · PPG 1.43

UTAH ROYALS W · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

North Carolina Courage W (H) 46.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -1.1%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.0%

Utah Royals W (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

North Carolina Courage W face Utah Royals W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives North Carolina Courage W a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Utah Royals W 29%, so North Carolina Courage W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for North Carolina Courage W and 1.3 for Utah Royals W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, North Carolina Courage W are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.50 for Utah Royals W. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.5%.

North Carolina Courage W vs Utah Royals W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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