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Denver Summit W vs Portland T. W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 18:00

Denver Summit W

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Portland T. W

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-16.5%0-25.1%0-32.6%0-4+1.4%1 1-06.8%1-110.6%1-28.2%1-34.2%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.5%2-26.6%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.0%3-14.6%3-23.6%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.7%4+-22.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.6% 39.2% 2.55 +3.5%

Draw 24.6% 29.4% 3.40 -9.8%

Away win 34.9% 41.7% 2.40 -16.2%

Over 2.5 63.5% 58.8% 1.70 +8.0%

Over 3.5 40.1% 37.0% 2.70 +8.3%

BTTS 62.4% 64.5% 1.55 -3.3%

Home O1.5 52.8% 46.5% 2.15 +13.5%

Away O1.5 50.2% 47.6% 2.10 +5.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.4%

H 41% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1✓ 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–0 4.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Denver Summit W1.6

Portland T. W1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.5% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DENVER SUMMIT W · PPG 1.00

PORTLAND T. W · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Denver Summit W (H) 40.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +3.5%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.8%

Portland T. W (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -16.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Denver Summit W face Portland T. W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Denver Summit W a 41% chance, the draw 25% and Portland T. W 35%, so Denver Summit W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Denver Summit W and 1.6 for Portland T. W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Denver Summit W are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Portland T. W. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +13.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Denver Summit W vs Portland T. W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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