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Bay FC W vs N. Carolina W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 20:00

Bay FC W

PPG 0.83 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

N. Carolina W

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-112.6%0-28.9%0-34.2%0-4+2.0%1 1-08.9%1-112.6%1-28.9%1-34.2%1-4+2.0%2 2-04.5%2-16.4%2-24.5%2-32.1%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.5%3-12.1%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.3% 34.5% 2.90 -9.2%

Draw 26.7% 28.6% 3.50 -3.9%

Away win 42.0% 47.6% 2.10 -11.8%

Over 2.5 50.2% 58.8% 1.70 -14.7%

Over 3.5 29.0% 36.4% 2.75 -12.2%

BTTS 52.8% 63.7% 1.57 -17.1%

Home O1.5 35.6% 42.6% 2.35 -16.3%

Away O1.5 39.0% 51.8% 1.93 -24.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.8%

A 42% / xG 1.0-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.9%

#3 0–1 12.6%

#4 1–2 8.9%

#5 0–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bay FC W1.0

N. Carolina W1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BAY FC W · PPG 0.83

N. CAROLINA W · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.83) vs Home POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Bay FC W (H) 31.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.2%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.9%

N. Carolina W (A) 42.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bay FC W face N. Carolina W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bay FC W a 31% chance, the draw 27% and N. Carolina W 42%, so N. Carolina W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Bay FC W and 1.4 for N. Carolina W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bay FC W are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.83 for N. Carolina W. This match finished 3-0.

Bay FC W vs N. Carolina W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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