Today / USA - NWSL / Boston Legacy W vs Kansas City W

Boston Legacy W vs Kansas City W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 21:00

Boston Legacy W logo
Boston Legacy W
PPG 1.10 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Kansas City W logo
Kansas City W
PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-17.1%0-24.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.0%1-111.5%1-27.3%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.3%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.9%3-15.0%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 46.6%
Draw 25.3%
Away win 28.0%
Over 2.5 60.7%
Over 3.5 37.5%
BTTS 60.1%
Home O1.5 53.5%
Away O1.5 37.1%

League track record

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%
O2.5 46%
BTTS 42%
Score Hit 39%
ROI -7.8%
Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.1%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%
#2 2–1 9.3%
#3 1–0 9.0%
#4 2–0 7.3%
#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boston Legacy W1.6
Kansas City W1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BOSTON LEGACY W · PPG 1.10

KANSAS CITY W · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

xG gap +0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Boston Legacy W (H) 46.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 25.3%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Kansas City W (A) 28.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Boston Legacy W face Kansas City W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boston Legacy W a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Kansas City W 28%, so Boston Legacy W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Boston Legacy W and 1.3 for Kansas City W (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boston Legacy W are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 0.75 for Kansas City W.

PredictVantage

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