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Houston Dash W vs Bay FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 00:00

Houston Dash W

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bay FC W

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+12.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.3%0-24.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.5%1-111.6%1-27.1%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.3%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.0%3-15.0%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.8%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 35.7% 2.80 +29.9%

Draw 25.2% 30.3% 3.30 -10.1%

Away win 28.3% 44.4% 2.25 -21.8%

Over 2.5 60.7% 54.1% 1.85 +12.3%

Over 3.5 37.5% 31.3% 3.20 +20.0%

BTTS 60.3% 59.9% 1.67 +0.7%

Home O1.5 52.1% 40.0% 2.50 +30.3%

Away O1.5 36.9% 46.5% 2.15 -20.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -7.8%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.3%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 9.5%

#4 0–0 5.9%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Houston Dash W1.6

Bay FC W1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HOUSTON DASH W · PPG 1.57

BAY FC W · PPG 1.43

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Houston Dash W (H) 46.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +29.9%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.1%

Bay FC W (A) 28.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Houston Dash W face Bay FC W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Houston Dash W a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Bay FC W 28%, so Houston Dash W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Houston Dash W and 1.2 for Bay FC W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Houston Dash W are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.43 for Bay FC W. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +30.3%.

Houston Dash W vs Bay FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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