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R. Louisville W vs Houston Dash W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 00:00

R. Louisville W

PPG 1.17 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Houston Dash W

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+12.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.2%0-24.2%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.9%1-110.7%1-27.3%1-33.3%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.2%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.9%3-15.3%3-23.6%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.4%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 44.4% 2.25 +4.9%

Draw 24.8% 29.9% 3.35 -10.2%

Away win 28.6% 35.7% 2.80 -11.9%

Over 2.5 62.7% 55.6% 1.80 +12.9%

Over 3.5 40.1% 33.3% 3.00 +20.3%

BTTS 62.4% 61.7% 1.62 +1.1%

Home O1.5 53.0% 47.6% 2.10 +11.3%

Away O1.5 39.0% 40.8% 2.45 -4.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -7.8%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.4%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

R. Louisville W1.7

Houston Dash W1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

R. LOUISVILLE W · PPG 1.17

HOUSTON DASH W · PPG 0.57

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

R. Louisville W (H) 46.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +4.9%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.2%

Houston Dash W (A) 28.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

R. Louisville W face Houston Dash W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives R. Louisville W a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Houston Dash W 29%, so R. Louisville W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for R. Louisville W and 1.4 for Houston Dash W (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, R. Louisville W are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.57 for Houston Dash W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.3%. This match finished 1-1.

R. Louisville W vs Houston Dash W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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