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Orlando Pride W vs Chicago Red Stars W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 00:00

Orlando Pride W

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Chicago Red Stars W

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-13.2%0-20.8%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.7%1-17.3%1-21.9%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.7%2-18.3%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.9%3-16.3%3-21.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-011.5%4+-16.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.1% 69.4% 1.44 +0.9%

Draw 20.1% 23.8% 4.20 -9.3%

Away win 9.9% 17.2% 5.80 -25.6%

Over 2.5 53.9% 67.6% 1.48 -20.2%

Over 3.5 32.8% 46.5% 2.15 -29.5%

BTTS 48.2% 64.5% 1.55 -25.3%

Home O1.5 61.8% 71.4% 1.40 -13.5%

Away O1.5 19.1% 33.3% 3.00 -25.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -7.8%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.2%

H 70% / xG 2.3-0.5 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.7%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 3–0 11.9%

#4 1–1 7.3%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orlando Pride W2.3

Chicago Red Stars W0.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ORLANDO PRIDE W · PPG 1.62

CHICAGO RED STARS W · PPG 0.43

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.75 for Home, form 1.62 vs 0.43 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Orlando Pride W (H) 70.1%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV +0.9%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -9.3%

Chicago Red Stars W (A) 9.9%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -25.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orlando Pride W face Chicago Red Stars W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orlando Pride W a 70% chance, the draw 20% and Chicago Red Stars W 10%, so Orlando Pride W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Orlando Pride W and 0.5 for Chicago Red Stars W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orlando Pride W are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.43 for Chicago Red Stars W.

Orlando Pride W vs Chicago Red Stars W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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