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Deportivo Cali vs Jaguares Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura - 1 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 01:15

Deportivo Cali

PPG 1.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jaguares

PPG 0.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-14.2%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.9%1-18.4%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.9%2-18.4%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.7%3-15.6%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-14.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.4% 65.8% 1.52 -2.1%

Draw 21.4% 26.3% 3.80 -11.2%

Away win 14.2% 14.7% 6.80 -2.1%

Over 2.5 50.2% 45.5% 2.20 +10.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.8% 4.20 +12.3%

BTTS 48.5% 44.4% 2.25 +9.1%

Home O1.5 55.7% 55.6% 1.80 +0.3%

Away O1.5 19.1% 18.2% 5.50 +3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 16.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.5%

H 64% / xG 2.0-0.5 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.9%

#2 1–0 15.9%

#3 3–0 10.7%

#4 1–1 8.4%

#5 0–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Cali2.0

Jaguares0.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO CALI · PPG 1.90

JAGUARES · PPG 0.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.48 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Cali (H) 64.4%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -2.1%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.2%

Jaguares (A) 14.2%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV -2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Cali face Jaguares in Colombia - Primera A on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Cali a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Jaguares 14%, so Deportivo Cali are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Deportivo Cali and 0.5 for Jaguares (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Cali are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.22 for Jaguares. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.3%.

Deportivo Cali vs Jaguares Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera A Predictions