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Millonarios vs Bucaramanga Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura - 1 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 23:10

Millonarios

PPG 2.10 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bucaramanga

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.0% vs bookmaker-implied 53.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-15.3%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.7%1-110.2%1-24.1%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.1%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.7%3-16.2%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-14.6%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 53.2% 1.88 +7.2%

Draw 22.5% 30.3% 3.30 -15.4%

Away win 20.4% 23.8% 4.20 -8.6%

Over 2.5 53.9% 44.4% 2.25 +21.3%

Over 3.5 32.8% 23.8% 4.20 +37.8%

BTTS 52.3% 50.0% 2.00 +4.6%

Home O1.5 55.7% 46.5% 2.15 +19.8%

Away O1.5 20.1% 25.3% 3.95 -12.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 16.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 57% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.1%

#2 1–1 10.2%

#3 1–0 12.7%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Millonarios1.9

Bucaramanga0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MILLONARIOS · PPG 2.10

BUCARAMANGA · PPG 0.70

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.11 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Millonarios (H) 57.0%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV +7.2%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.4%

Bucaramanga (A) 20.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Millonarios face Bucaramanga in Colombia - Primera A on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Millonarios a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Bucaramanga 20%, so Millonarios are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Millonarios and 0.8 for Bucaramanga (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Millonarios are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 0.70 for Bucaramanga. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +37.8%.

Millonarios vs Bucaramanga Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera A Predictions