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Llaneros vs Deportivo Pereira Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura - 1 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 23:10

Llaneros

PPG 1.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Pereira

PPG 0.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.04 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-16.5%0-21.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.1%1-110.2%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.1%2-18.0%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.9%3-14.2%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-12.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.1% — — —

Draw 24.8% — — —

Away win 20.1% — — —

Over 2.5 45.2% — — —

Over 3.5 24.6% — — —

BTTS 46.7% — — —

Home O1.5 49.4% — — —

Away O1.5 19.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 16.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.7%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.5 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.1%

#2 2–0 15.1%

#3 0–0 12.1%

#4 1–1 10.2%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Llaneros1.6

Deportivo Pereira0.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.2% · O3.5 PROB 24.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LLANEROS · PPG 1.11

DEPORTIVO PEREIRA · PPG 0.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.04 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Llaneros (H) 55.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Deportivo Pereira (A) 20.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Llaneros face Deportivo Pereira in Colombia - Primera A on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Llaneros a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Deportivo Pereira 20%, so Llaneros are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Llaneros and 0.5 for Deportivo Pereira (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Llaneros are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.30 for Deportivo Pereira.

Llaneros vs Deportivo Pereira Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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