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Llaneros vs Deportivo Pereira Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 1 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 23:10

Llaneros

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Deportivo Pereira

PPG 0.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDWL

// Model verdict

Home 60% chance

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 61.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-16.1%0-21.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.3%1-110.1%1-22.8%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.0%2-18.3%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.3%3-14.6%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-12.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.5% 61.3% 1.63 -9.5%

Draw 24.6% 28.2% 3.55 -7.6%

Away win 19.9% 17.2% 5.80 +9.3%

Over 2.5 46.8% 45.5% 2.20 +3.0%

Over 3.5 26.4% 23.8% 4.20 +6.5%

BTTS 48.0% 46.5% 2.15 +3.2%

Home O1.5 53.5% 52.6% 1.90 +1.7%

Away O1.5 19.1% 21.1% 4.75 -5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 5.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.0%

H 56% / xG 1.6-0.6 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 18.3%

#2 2–0 15.0%

#3 0–0 11.1%

#4 1–1 10.1%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Llaneros1.6

Deportivo Pereira0.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LLANEROS · PPG 1.11

DEPORTIVO PEREIRA · PPG 0.30

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.10 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Llaneros (H) 55.5%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -9.5%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.6%

Deportivo Pereira (A) 19.9%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Llaneros face Deportivo Pereira in Colombia - Primera A on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Llaneros a 56% chance, the draw 25% and Deportivo Pereira 20%, so Llaneros are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Llaneros and 0.6 for Deportivo Pereira (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Llaneros are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.30 for Deportivo Pereira. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Llaneros vs Deportivo Pereira Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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