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Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura - 1 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 21:05

Independiente Medellin

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Pasto

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+21.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-15.2%0-22.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.5%1-110.2%1-25.5%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.0%3-16.5%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-14.9%4+-22.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% 59.9% 1.67 -9.5%

Draw 22.2% 27.8% 3.60 -12.0%

Away win 23.6% 19.2% 5.20 +13.6%

Over 2.5 60.7% 50.0% 2.00 +21.4%

Over 3.5 38.4% 28.6% 3.50 +34.4%

BTTS 59.5% 52.4% 1.91 +13.6%

Home O1.5 55.7% 54.6% 1.83 +1.9%

Away O1.5 36.4% 25.0% 4.00 +45.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 16.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.5%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente Medellin2.0

Deportivo Pasto1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 38.4%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE MEDELLIN · PPG 1.40

DEPORTIVO PASTO · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Independiente Medellin (H) 54.2%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -9.5%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.0%

Deportivo Pasto (A) 23.6%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente Medellin face Deportivo Pasto in Colombia - Primera A on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente Medellin a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Deportivo Pasto 24%, so Independiente Medellin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Independiente Medellin and 1.1 for Deportivo Pasto (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente Medellin are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.40 for Deportivo Pasto. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +45.6%.

Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera A Predictions