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Chico vs Atletico Nacional Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura - 1 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 21:00

Chico

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atletico Nacional

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-112.3%0-28.3%0-33.8%0-4+1.7%1 1-09.5%1-112.8%1-28.7%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.0%2-16.7%2-24.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.7%3-12.3%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% 18.2% 5.50 +105.7%

Draw 27.0% 27.4% 3.65 -0.9%

Away win 35.6% 61.3% 1.63 -42.0%

Over 2.5 50.0% 50.0% 2.00 0.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 28.6% 3.50 +0.3%

BTTS 52.3% 51.3% 1.95 +2.0%

Home O1.5 35.0% 23.8% 4.20 +47.0%

Away O1.5 41.9% 55.6% 1.80 -24.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 16.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.3%

A 36% / xG 1.0-1.4 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 9.1%

#3 0–1 12.3%

#4 1–2 8.7%

#5 0–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chico1.0

Atletico Nacional1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CHICO · PPG 1.78

ATLETICO NACIONAL · PPG 1.62

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.31, combined xG 2.40 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chico (H) 37.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +105.7%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -0.9%

Atletico Nacional (A) 35.6%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -42.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chico face Atletico Nacional in Colombia - Primera A on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chico a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Atletico Nacional 36%, so Chico are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Chico and 1.4 for Atletico Nacional (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chico are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.62 for Atletico Nacional. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +50.2%.

Chico vs Atletico Nacional Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera A Predictions