Today / Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday / Gemert vs Meerssen

Gemert vs Meerssen Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:00

Gemert

PPG 1.71 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Meerssen

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.2%0-21.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.1%1-16.2%1-23.8%1-31.5%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.0%2-18.6%2-25.3%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.5%3-18.0%3-24.9%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-09.0%4+-111.0%4+-26.7%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.0% 63.7% 1.57 +9.9%

Draw 15.8% 26.7% 3.75 -40.8%

Away win 14.2% 22.2% 4.50 -36.1%

Over 2.5 76.3% — — —

Over 3.5 56.8% — — —

BTTS 66.2% 65.4% 1.53 +1.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 82%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob66.2%

H 70% / xG 2.8-1.2 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 3–1 8.0%

#3 2–0 7.0%

#4 3–0 6.5%

#5 1–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gemert2.8

Meerssen1.2

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.3% · O3.5 PROB 56.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GEMERT · PPG 1.71

MEERSSEN · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.71) > Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Gemert (H) 70.0%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +9.9%

Draw 15.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -40.8%

Meerssen (A) 14.2%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -36.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gemert face Meerssen in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gemert a 70% chance, the draw 16% and Meerssen 14%, so Gemert are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Gemert and 1.2 for Meerssen (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gemert are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.14 for Meerssen. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.9%. This match finished 4-1.

Gemert vs Meerssen Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

More Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday Predictions