Gemert vs Meerssen Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday Group B - 30 Sportpark Molenbroek· Gemert Sunday, April 19, 2026 12:00

Gemert PPG 1.71

4-1 MISS

Meerssen PPG 1.14

Home· +9.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Gemert face Meerssen in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gemert a 70% chance, the draw 16% and Meerssen 14%, so Gemert are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Gemert and 1.2 for Meerssen (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gemert are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.14 for Meerssen. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.9%. This match finished 4-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 70.0%

Odds: 1.57 EV: +9.9%

Draw 15.8%

Odds: 3.75 EV: -40.8%

Away 14.2%

Odds: 4.50 EV: -36.1%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 76.3% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 56.8% Odds: — —

BTTS 66.2% Odds: 1.53 +1.3%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 3-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 3-0 ✘

5th 1-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Gemert

2.79

Meerssen

1.22

Model SuggestionOver 2.5  EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (—), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5/Under 67%

BTTS/No 61%

Score Hit 33%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.71) > Away AVERAGE (1.14)