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UNA vs Lisse Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 32 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 12:30

UNA

PPG 1.07 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Lisse

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-18.0%0-28.1%0-35.4%0-4+4.3%1 1-04.8%1-19.7%1-29.8%1-36.6%1-4+5.3%2 2-02.9%2-15.9%2-25.9%2-34.0%2-4+3.2%3 3-01.2%3-12.4%3-22.4%3-31.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.1% 30.3% 3.30 -14.3%

Draw 25.1% 30.3% 3.30 -10.3%

Away win 51.8% 52.4% 1.91 -1.1%

Over 2.5 60.2% 65.4% 1.53 -7.9%

Over 3.5 40.4% 43.3% 2.31 -6.7%

BTTS 58.8% 69.4% 1.44 -15.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob58.8%

A 52% / xG 1.2-2.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2✓ 8.1%

#4 1–3 6.6%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UNA1.2

Lisse2.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 40.4%

Form & verdict PPG

UNA · PPG 1.07

LISSE · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.73) vs Home AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

UNA (H) 23.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -14.3%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.3%

Lisse (A) 51.8%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

UNA face Lisse in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UNA a 23% chance, the draw 25% and Lisse 52%, so Lisse are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for UNA and 2.0 for Lisse (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UNA are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.73 for Lisse. This match finished 0-2.

UNA vs Lisse Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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