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Zwaluwen vs TOGB Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 32 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:30

Zwaluwen

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

TOGB

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.9%0-23.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-05.4%1-18.3%1-26.4%1-33.3%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.8%2-18.9%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.1%3-16.4%3-24.9%3-32.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-15.6%4+-24.3%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 54.1% 1.85 -8.8%

Draw 25.6% 25.0% 4.00 +1.4%

Away win 25.1% 33.3% 3.00 -14.8%

Over 2.5 61.7% 66.7% 1.50 -7.4%

Over 3.5 50.3% 50.5% 1.98 -0.4%

BTTS 62.5% 73.5% 1.36 -15.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.5%

H 49% / xG 2.1-1.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 1–2 6.4%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zwaluwen2.1

TOGB1.5

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 50.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ZWALUWEN · PPG 1.67

TOGB · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Zwaluwen (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -8.8%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +1.4%

TOGB (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zwaluwen face TOGB in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zwaluwen a 49% chance, the draw 26% and TOGB 25%, so Zwaluwen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Zwaluwen and 1.5 for TOGB (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zwaluwen are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.40 for TOGB. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Zwaluwen vs TOGB Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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