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Noordwijk vs SteDoCo Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 32 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:30

Noordwijk

PPG 1.80 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

SteDoCo

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-14.7%0-22.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.7%1-19.7%1-24.9%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-110.0%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.8%3-16.8%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-15.6%4+-22.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 57.1% 1.75 -10.8%

Draw 26.4% 27.0% 3.70 -1.4%

Away win 22.6% 29.4% 3.40 -13.9%

Over 2.5 59.3% 66.7% 1.50 -11.1%

Over 3.5 36.5% 46.1% 2.17 -20.8%

BTTS 54.6% 69.4% 1.44 -21.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 10.0%

#3 2–0 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 3–1✓ 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Noordwijk2.0

SteDoCo1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NOORDWIJK · PPG 1.80

STEDOCO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Noordwijk (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -10.8%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -1.4%

SteDoCo (A) 22.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Noordwijk face SteDoCo in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Noordwijk a 51% chance, the draw 26% and SteDoCo 23%, so Noordwijk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Noordwijk and 1.0 for SteDoCo (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Noordwijk are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.00 for SteDoCo. This match finished 3-1.

Noordwijk vs SteDoCo Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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