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Groene Ster vs Kloetinge Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 32 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 16:00

Groene Ster

PPG 1.53 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kloetinge

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-17.8%0-27.3%0-34.5%0-4+3.2%1 1-05.4%1-110.2%1-29.5%1-35.9%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.6%2-16.7%2-26.2%2-33.9%2-4+2.8%3 3-01.6%3-12.9%3-22.7%3-31.7%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% 31.3% 3.20 -7.0%

Draw 27.0% 29.4% 3.40 -4.9%

Away win 45.4% 50.0% 2.00 -9.2%

Over 2.5 60.2% 65.4% 1.53 -7.9%

Over 3.5 39.4% 43.7% 2.29 -9.8%

BTTS 58.8% 68.5% 1.46 -14.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob58.8%

A 45% / xG 1.3-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2✓ 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Groene Ster1.3

Kloetinge1.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GROENE STER · PPG 1.53

KLOETINGE · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.53), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Groene Ster (H) 27.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.0%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.9%

Kloetinge (A) 45.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Groene Ster face Kloetinge in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Groene Ster a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Kloetinge 45%, so Kloetinge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Groene Ster and 1.9 for Kloetinge (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Groene Ster are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.67 for Kloetinge. This match finished 1-2.

Groene Ster vs Kloetinge Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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