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Gemert vs VVSB Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 32 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 12:00

Gemert

PPG 1.80 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

VVSB

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.4%0-24.3%0-32.3%0-4+1.4%1 1-05.9%1-19.6%1-27.8%1-34.2%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.3%2-18.6%2-26.9%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.2%3-15.1%3-24.1%3-32.2%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.4%4+-22.8%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.9% 42.0% 2.38 -2.7%

Draw 24.8% 26.7% 3.75 -4.2%

Away win 34.3% 42.0% 2.38 -18.4%

Over 2.5 61.7% 66.7% 1.50 -7.4%

Over 3.5 44.3% 47.2% 2.12 -6.1%

BTTS 60.0% 72.5% 1.38 -17.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob60.0%

H 41% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 2–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gemert1.8

VVSB1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 44.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GEMERT · PPG 1.80

VVSB · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.80), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Gemert (H) 40.9%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -2.7%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.2%

VVSB (A) 34.3%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gemert face VVSB in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gemert a 41% chance, the draw 25% and VVSB 34%, so Gemert are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Gemert and 1.6 for VVSB (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gemert are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.60 for VVSB. This match finished 0-1.

Gemert vs VVSB Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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