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Scheveningen vs ASWH Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 32 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:30

Scheveningen

PPG 0.93 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

ASWH

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.3%0-22.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.0%1-17.6%1-25.8%1-32.9%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.8%2-18.8%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.5%3-16.8%3-25.1%3-32.6%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-16.8%4+-25.1%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 51.3% 1.95 -2.1%

Draw 24.3% 28.6% 3.50 -9.0%

Away win 25.5% 33.3% 3.00 -14.1%

Over 2.5 61.7% 66.7% 1.50 -7.4%

Over 3.5 53.2% 44.8% 2.23 +18.6%

BTTS 62.7% 69.4% 1.44 -9.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.7%

H 50% / xG 2.3-1.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 1–1 7.6%

#3 3–1 6.8%

#4 2–2✓ 6.7%

#5 2–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Scheveningen2.3

ASWH1.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SCHEVENINGEN · PPG 0.93

ASWH · PPG 0.73

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.93), Away POOR (0.73)

Win probability 1X2

Scheveningen (H) 50.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -2.1%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.0%

ASWH (A) 25.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Scheveningen face ASWH in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Scheveningen a 50% chance, the draw 24% and ASWH 26%, so Scheveningen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Scheveningen and 1.5 for ASWH (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Scheveningen are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 0.73 for ASWH. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Scheveningen vs ASWH Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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