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Colo Colo vs Deportes Limache Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 00:30

Colo Colo

PPG 2.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportes Limache

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-13.6%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.7%1-18.4%1-23.6%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-19.6%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.6%3-17.4%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-17.3%4+-23.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.7% 69.4% 1.44 -9.7%

Draw 19.8% 23.8% 4.20 -10.1%

Away win 17.5% 16.1% 6.20 +5.1%

Over 2.5 63.7% 64.5% 1.55 -1.3%

Over 3.5 41.3% 42.6% 2.35 -2.9%

BTTS 55.4% 60.6% 1.65 -8.6%

Home O1.5 61.8% 69.0% 1.45 -10.4%

Away O1.5 21.4% 28.6% 3.50 -15.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 10.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 63% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–1 8.4%

#4 3–0 8.6%

#5 1–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colo Colo2.3

Deportes Limache0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

COLO COLO · PPG 2.25

DEPORTES LIMACHE · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.45 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Colo Colo (H) 62.7%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -9.7%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -10.1%

Deportes Limache (A) 17.5%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colo Colo face Deportes Limache in Chile - Primera División on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colo Colo a 63% chance, the draw 20% and Deportes Limache 18%, so Colo Colo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Colo Colo and 0.9 for Deportes Limache (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colo Colo are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.75 for Deportes Limache. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +9.4%.

Colo Colo vs Deportes Limache Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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