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Union La Calera vs U. de Chile Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 19:00

Union La Calera

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

U. de Chile

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.7%0-119.6%0-210.8%0-34.0%0-4+1.4%1 1-011.1%1-112.2%1-26.8%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-03.5%2-13.8%2-22.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.3%3 3-00.7%3-10.8%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.8% 29.4% 3.40 -15.5%

Draw 33.7% 30.8% 3.25 +9.5%

Away win 44.5% 48.5% 2.06 -8.3%

Over 2.5 37.8% 47.6% 2.10 -20.6%

Over 3.5 18.5% 27.0% 3.70 -18.9%

BTTS 47.6% 55.6% 1.80 -14.3%

Home O1.5 33.0% 31.3% 3.20 +5.6%

Away O1.5 32.8% 45.5% 2.20 -27.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 12.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.6%

A 44% / xG 0.6-1.1 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.7%

#2 0–1 19.6%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 0–2 10.8%

#5 1–0 11.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union La Calera0.6

U. de Chile1.1

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION LA CALERA · PPG 1.00

U. DE CHILE · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Union La Calera (H) 21.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -15.5%

Draw 33.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +9.5%

U. de Chile (A) 44.5%

ODDS 2.06 · IMPLIED 48.5% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union La Calera face U. de Chile in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union La Calera a 22% chance, the draw 34% and U. de Chile 45%, so U. de Chile are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Union La Calera and 1.1 for U. de Chile (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union La Calera are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.14 for U. de Chile. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +9.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Union La Calera vs U. de Chile Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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