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Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Friday, July 24, 2026, 22:00

Union La Calera

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

UPCOMING

Everton de Vina

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-19.8%0-25.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.2%1-112.9%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.1%2-18.6%2-24.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.6%3-13.8%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.2% 40.3% 2.48 +7.1%

Draw 26.9% 31.3% 3.20 -8.3%

Away win 29.9% 37.7% 2.65 -12.5%

Over 2.5 50.0% 46.5% 2.15 +7.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.0% 4.00 +8.9%

BTTS 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Home O1.5 38.5% 38.2% 2.62 +0.9%

Away O1.5 36.4% 36.4% 2.75 +0.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

H 43% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.2%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union La Calera1.3

Everton de Vina1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION LA CALERA · PPG 1.38

EVERTON DE VINA · PPG 1.43

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

54%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.27, combined xG 2.38 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Union La Calera (H) 43.2%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV +7.1%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.3%

Everton de Vina (A) 29.9%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union La Calera face Everton de Vina in Chile - Primera División on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union La Calera a 43% chance, the draw 27% and Everton de Vina 30%, so Union La Calera are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Union La Calera and 1.1 for Everton de Vina (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union La Calera are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.43 for Everton de Vina. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +18.9%.

Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Primera División Predictions