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U. Catolica vs U. Concepcion Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Chile - Primera División · Regular Season - 15 · Sunday, June 14, 2026, 21:30

U. Catolica

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

U. Concepcion

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-13.2%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.8%1-17.8%1-23.5%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.7%2-19.5%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.7%3-17.7%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.4%4+-18.4%4+-23.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 61.8% 1.52 -6.1%

Draw 20.0% 4.00 -12.0%

Away win 18.2% 5.60 +1.1%

Over 2.5 63.2% 1.70 +7.4%

Over 3.5 39.8% 2.75 +9.4%

BTTS 55.7% 1.73 -3.6%

Win probability 1X2

U. Catolica (H) 61.8%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -6.1%

Draw 20.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -12.0%

U. Concepcion (A) 18.2%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +1.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -9.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Hunt pick CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%HUNT CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.7%

H 62% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 7.8%

#4 3–0 8.7%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

U. Catolica2.4

U. Concepcion0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

U. CATOLICA · PPG 1.67

U. CONCEPCION · PPG 0.86

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=61.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

U. Catolica face U. Concepcion in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives U. Catolica a 62% chance, the draw 20% and U. Concepcion 18%, so U. Catolica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for U. Catolica and 0.9 for U. Concepcion (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, U. Catolica are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.86 for U. Concepcion. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.0%.

U. Catolica vs U. Concepcion Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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