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Concepcion vs D. Limache Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Chile - Primera División · Regular Season - 15 · Sunday, June 14, 2026, 16:30

Concepcion

PPG 0.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

D. Limache

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-110.3%0-29.0%0-35.2%0-4+3.4%1 1-06.4%1-111.2%1-29.8%1-35.7%1-4+3.7%2 2-03.5%2-16.0%2-25.3%2-33.1%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.2%3-12.2%3-21.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 2.78 -12.7%

Draw 24.2% 3.50 -9.2%

Away win 44.4% 2.26 +0.3%

Over 2.5 59.9% 1.70 +1.8%

Over 3.5 36.7% 2.75 +0.9%

BTTS 55.7% 1.55 -13.7%

Win probability 1X2

Concepcion (H) 31.4%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV -12.7%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.2%

D. Limache (A) 44.4%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV +0.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -9.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Hunt pick CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 41%HUNT CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob55.7%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 9.0%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Concepcion1.1

D. Limache1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CONCEPCION · PPG 0.83

D. LIMACHE · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.83), Away POOR (0.86)

Match Preview & Prediction

Concepcion face D. Limache in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Concepcion a 31% chance, the draw 24% and D. Limache 44%, so D. Limache are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Concepcion and 1.7 for D. Limache (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Concepcion are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 0.86 for D. Limache. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +14.2%.

Concepcion vs D. Limache Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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