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Colo-Colo vs Cobresal Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 21:30

Colo-Colo

PPG 2.14 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Cobresal

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-13.4%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.4%1-18.0%1-23.5%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-19.5%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.8%3-17.6%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.1%4+-17.8%4+-23.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.0% 77.5% 1.29 -20.0%

Draw 19.9% 19.6% 5.10 +0.9%

Away win 18.0% 11.8% 8.50 +31.8%

Over 2.5 64.2% 66.7% 1.50 -3.7%

Over 3.5 39.8% 45.5% 2.20 -12.4%

BTTS 55.7% 55.6% 1.80 +0.3%

Home O1.5 61.0% 75.2% 1.33 -18.9%

Away O1.5 24.8% 23.1% 4.33 +4.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 12.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.7%

H 62% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 8.0%

#4 3–0✓ 8.8%

#5 1–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colo-Colo2.4

Cobresal0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

COLO-COLO · PPG 2.14

COBRESAL · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs P(Home)=62.0%

Win probability 1X2

Colo-Colo (H) 62.0%

ODDS 1.29 · IMPLIED 77.5% EV -20.0%

Draw 19.9%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +0.9%

Cobresal (A) 18.0%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +31.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colo-Colo face Cobresal in Chile - Primera División on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colo-Colo a 62% chance, the draw 20% and Cobresal 18%, so Colo-Colo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Colo-Colo and 0.9 for Cobresal (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colo-Colo are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 0.57 for Cobresal. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +31.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Colo-Colo vs Cobresal Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Primera División Predictions