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D. Limache vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 14 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 16:30

D. Limache

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Coquimbo Unido

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 57% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-15.6%0-23.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.7%1-110.5%1-25.7%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.7%3-16.2%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.5%4+-22.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 38.5% 2.60 +29.5%

Draw 22.5% 29.9% 3.35 -14.8%

Away win 27.7% 41.0% 2.44 -19.4%

Over 2.5 60.1% 55.6% 1.80 +8.2%

Over 3.5 36.2% 33.3% 3.00 +8.6%

BTTS 57.8% 61.7% 1.62 -6.4%

Home O1.5 56.0% 42.6% 2.35 +31.6%

Away O1.5 29.7% 44.4% 2.25 -19.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 0.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob57.8%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Limache1.9

Coquimbo Unido1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

D. LIMACHE · PPG 2.50

COQUIMBO UNIDO · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

57%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=49.8%

Win probability 1X2

D. Limache (H) 49.8%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +29.5%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -14.8%

Coquimbo Unido (A) 27.7%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Limache face Coquimbo Unido in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Limache a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Coquimbo Unido 28%, so D. Limache are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for D. Limache and 1.1 for Coquimbo Unido (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Limache are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.43 for Coquimbo Unido. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +48.4%. This match finished 2-3.

D. Limache vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Primera División Predictions