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Huachipato vs U. Catolica Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 19:00

Huachipato

PPG 2.50 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

U. Catolica

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.8%0-25.0%0-32.4%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.4%1-110.9%1-28.0%1-33.9%1-4+2.0%2 2-06.0%2-18.8%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.2%3-14.7%3-23.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.7%4+-22.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.2% 34.5% 2.90 +16.6%

Draw 24.5% 29.4% 3.40 -10.0%

Away win 35.3% 45.0% 2.22 -21.6%

Over 2.5 60.1% 52.6% 1.90 +14.2%

Over 3.5 36.2% 31.3% 3.20 +15.8%

BTTS 61.0% 59.9% 1.67 +1.9%

Home O1.5 47.7% 38.5% 2.60 +24.0%

Away O1.5 43.1% 46.5% 2.15 -7.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 10.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.0%

H 40% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–0 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Huachipato1.6

U. Catolica1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HUACHIPATO · PPG 2.50

U. CATOLICA · PPG 1.43

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=40.2%

Win probability 1X2

Huachipato (H) 40.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +16.6%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.0%

U. Catolica (A) 35.3%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Huachipato face U. Catolica in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Huachipato a 40% chance, the draw 25% and U. Catolica 35%, so Huachipato are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Huachipato and 1.5 for U. Catolica (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Huachipato are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.43 for U. Catolica. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +24.0%. This match finished 0-3.

Huachipato vs U. Catolica Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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