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Huachipato vs U. Catolica Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 14 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 19:00

Huachipato

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

U. Catolica

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 61.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.8%0-25.0%0-32.4%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.4%1-110.9%1-28.0%1-33.9%1-4+2.0%2 2-06.0%2-18.8%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.2%3-14.7%3-23.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.7%4+-22.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.2% 34.5% 2.90 +16.6%

Draw 24.5% 29.4% 3.40 -10.0%

Away win 35.3% 45.0% 2.22 -21.6%

Over 2.5 60.1% 52.6% 1.90 +14.2%

Over 3.5 36.2% 31.3% 3.20 +15.8%

BTTS 61.0% 59.9% 1.67 +1.9%

Home O1.5 47.7% 38.5% 2.60 +24.0%

Away O1.5 43.1% 46.5% 2.15 -7.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 0.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.0%

H 40% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–0 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Huachipato1.6

U. Catolica1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HUACHIPATO · PPG 2.50

U. CATOLICA · PPG 1.43

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

60%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=40.2%

Win probability 1X2

Huachipato (H) 40.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +16.6%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.0%

U. Catolica (A) 35.3%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Huachipato face U. Catolica in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Huachipato a 40% chance, the draw 25% and U. Catolica 35%, so Huachipato are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Huachipato and 1.5 for U. Catolica (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Huachipato are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.43 for U. Catolica. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +24.0%. This match finished 0-3.

Huachipato vs U. Catolica Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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