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Bali Utd vs Malut United Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 28 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:00

Bali Utd

PPG 1.15 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Malut United

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 70.4% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a clear edge.

+24.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-15.0%0-24.7%0-33.0%0-4+2.1%1 1-04.6%1-18.7%1-28.2%1-35.2%1-4+3.8%2 2-04.0%2-17.6%2-27.2%2-34.5%2-4+3.3%3 3-02.3%3-14.4%3-24.2%3-32.6%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.9%4+-22.7%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 36.4% 2.75 -0.2%

Draw 21.8% 29.4% 3.40 -25.9%

Away win 41.9% 44.4% 2.25 -5.7%

Over 2.5 70.4% 56.5% 1.77 +24.6%

Over 3.5 49.3% 33.9% 2.95 +45.4%

BTTS 70.1% 62.5% 1.60 +12.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob70.1%

A 42% / xG 1.8-1.9 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 1–2 8.2%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 1–3 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bali Utd1.8

Malut United1.9

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BALI UTD · PPG 1.15

MALUT UNITED · PPG 1.69

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.69) vs Home AVERAGE (1.15)

Win probability 1X2

Bali Utd (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -0.2%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -25.9%

Malut United (A) 41.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bali Utd face Malut United in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bali Utd a 36% chance, the draw 22% and Malut United 42%, so Malut United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Bali Utd and 1.9 for Malut United (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bali Utd are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 1.69 for Malut United. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +45.4%. This match finished 4-1.

Bali Utd vs Malut United Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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