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Argentino Merlo vs Excursionistas Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 18:30

Argentino Merlo

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Excursionistas

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.9%0-117.0%0-26.9%0-31.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.8%1-112.8%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-05.9%2-14.8%2-22.0%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.5%3-11.2%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.5% 37.7% 2.65 -19.2%

Draw 35.8% 34.7% 2.88 +3.1%

Away win 33.7% 37.7% 2.65 -10.7%

Over 2.5 20.7% 37.0% 2.70 -44.1%

Over 3.5 7.4% — — —

BTTS 29.4% 47.6% 2.10 -38.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob29.4%

D 36% / xG 0.8-0.8 / U2.5 21% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.9%

#2 0–1 17.0%

#3 1–0 15.8%

#4 1–1✓ 12.8%

#5 0–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Argentino Merlo0.8

Excursionistas0.8

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 20.7% · O3.5 PROB 7.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ARGENTINO MERLO · PPG 1.75

EXCURSIONISTAS · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Argentino Merlo (H) 30.5%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -19.2%

Draw 35.8%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +3.1%

Excursionistas (A) 33.7%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Argentino Merlo face Excursionistas in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Argentino Merlo a 31% chance, the draw 36% and Excursionistas 34%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for Argentino Merlo and 0.8 for Excursionistas (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 21% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Argentino Merlo are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.75 for Excursionistas. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Argentino Merlo vs Excursionistas Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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