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Arsenal Sarandi vs S. Italiano Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 17:30

Arsenal Sarandi

PPG 2.13 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

S. Italiano

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.1%0-112.0%0-23.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.9%1-111.8%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.3%2-15.8%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.4%3-11.9%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 56.5% 1.77 -23.4%

Draw 33.8% 33.9% 2.95 -0.3%

Away win 23.0% 19.6% 5.10 +10.4%

Over 2.5 33.0% 33.9% 2.95 -2.6%

Over 3.5 18.5% 16.7% 6.00 +6.6%

BTTS 44.2% 40.0% 2.50 +10.5%

Home O1.5 36.7% 42.0% 2.38 -12.7%

Away O1.5 19.3% 17.4% 5.75 +6.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.2%

H 43% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.1%

#2 1–0 20.9%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 0–1 12.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arsenal Sarandi1.0

S. Italiano0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ARSENAL SARANDI · PPG 2.13

S. ITALIANO · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.13) > Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Arsenal Sarandi (H) 43.3%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -23.4%

Draw 33.8%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -0.3%

S. Italiano (A) 23.0%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal Sarandi face S. Italiano in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal Sarandi a 43% chance, the draw 34% and S. Italiano 23%, so Arsenal Sarandi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Arsenal Sarandi and 0.6 for S. Italiano (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal Sarandi are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.75 for S. Italiano. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +10.5%. This match finished 1-3.

Arsenal Sarandi vs S. Italiano Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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