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Ituzaingo vs Real Pilar Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 19 ·Friday, June 5, 2026, 21:00

Ituzaingo

PPG 0.44 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Real Pilar

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 51.2% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.3%0-119.7%0-212.7%0-35.5%0-4+2.3%1 1-09.0%1-111.6%1-27.5%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-02.7%2-13.4%2-22.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.5%3-10.7%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.1% 29.0% 3.45 -20.5%

Draw 29.7% 32.3% 3.10 -4.8%

Away win 51.2% 48.8% 2.05 +5.0%

Over 2.5 37.1% 42.6% 2.35 -12.8%

Over 3.5 19.3% 23.1% 4.33 -9.9%

BTTS 47.4% 51.3% 1.95 -7.6%

Home O1.5 33.3% 28.6% 3.50 +16.6%

Away O1.5 32.0% 42.6% 2.35 -24.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob47.4%

A 51% / xG 0.6-1.3 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 19.7%

#2 0–0 15.3%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 0–2 12.7%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ituzaingo0.6

Real Pilar1.3

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.1% · O3.5 PROB 19.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ITUZAINGO · PPG 0.44

REAL PILAR · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.67) vs Home POOR (0.44)

Win probability 1X2

Ituzaingo (H) 19.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -20.5%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.8%

Real Pilar (A) 51.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ituzaingo face Real Pilar in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Friday, June 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ituzaingo a 19% chance, the draw 30% and Real Pilar 51%, so Real Pilar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Ituzaingo and 1.3 for Real Pilar (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ituzaingo are averaging 0.44 points per game versus 1.67 for Real Pilar. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +16.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Ituzaingo vs Real Pilar Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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