Today / Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana / Excursionistas vs SM Burzaco

Excursionistas vs SM Burzaco Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 18:30

Excursionistas

PPG 2.13 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

SM Burzaco

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.1%0-114.0%0-24.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.3%1-112.3%1-23.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.5%2-15.4%2-21.7%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.5%3-11.6%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.2% 51.3% 1.95 -21.6%

Draw 34.6% 33.9% 2.95 +2.1%

Away win 25.2% 25.6% 3.90 -1.0%

Over 2.5 33.0% 37.0% 2.70 -10.9%

Over 3.5 18.8% 20.0% 5.00 -3.6%

BTTS 47.4% 45.5% 2.20 +4.3%

Home O1.5 33.7% 40.8% 2.45 -17.4%

Away O1.5 21.8% 23.1% 4.33 -3.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.4%

H 40% / xG 0.9-0.6 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.1%

#2 1–0 19.3%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 0–1 14.0%

#5 2–0✓ 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Excursionistas0.9

SM Burzaco0.6

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.8%

Form & verdict PPG

EXCURSIONISTAS · PPG 2.13

SM BURZACO · PPG 2.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.13), Away EXCELLENT (2.13)

Win probability 1X2

Excursionistas (H) 40.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -21.6%

Draw 34.6%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +2.1%

SM Burzaco (A) 25.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Excursionistas face SM Burzaco in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Excursionistas a 40% chance, the draw 35% and SM Burzaco 25%, so Excursionistas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Excursionistas and 0.6 for SM Burzaco (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Excursionistas are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 2.13 for SM Burzaco. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Excursionistas vs SM Burzaco Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana Predictions