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Internacional de Bogota vs Águilas Doradas Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 9 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 21:00

Internacional de Bogota

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDDD

UPCOMING

Águilas Doradas

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 53% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-18.0%0-23.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.5%1-112.2%1-26.0%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.3%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.8%3-14.7%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 54.1% 1.85 -14.2%

Draw 26.0% 31.3% 3.20 -10.1%

Away win 27.5% 23.1% 4.33 +11.5%

Over 2.5 50.6% 47.6% 2.10 +6.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.7% 3.75 +4.6%

BTTS 52.9% 52.4% 1.91 +1.0%

Home O1.5 39.9% 50.0% 2.00 -20.2%

Away O1.5 28.1% 25.0% 4.00 +7.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 4.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Internacional de Bogota1.5

Águilas Doradas1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

INTERNACIONAL DE BOGOTA · PPG 1.69

ÁGUILAS DORADAS · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

53%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Internacional de Bogota (H) 46.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -14.2%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.1%

Águilas Doradas (A) 27.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Internacional de Bogota face Águilas Doradas in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Internacional de Bogota a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Águilas Doradas 28%, so Internacional de Bogota are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Internacional de Bogota and 1.0 for Águilas Doradas (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Internacional de Bogota are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.50 for Águilas Doradas. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +20.1%.

Internacional de Bogota vs Águilas Doradas Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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