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Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 23:00

Llaneros

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLL

UPCOMING

Deportes Tolima

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.8%0-112.1%0-25.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.2%1-113.4%1-25.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.4%2-17.4%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.1%3-12.7%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.7% 37.0% 2.70 +7.2%

Draw 29.9% 34.5% 2.90 -8.0%

Away win 30.4% 38.2% 2.62 -20.3%

Over 2.5 42.6% 42.9% 2.33 -0.7%

Over 3.5 20.9% 24.1% 4.15 -8.0%

BTTS 48.0% 54.1% 1.85 -11.2%

Home O1.5 30.9% 35.0% 2.86 -11.6%

Away O1.5 25.4% 38.0% 2.63 -19.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 5.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

D 30% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.2%

#2 0–0 13.8%

#3 1–1 13.4%

#4 0–1 12.1%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Llaneros1.1

Deportes Tolima0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.6% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LLANEROS · PPG 1.33

DEPORTES TOLIMA · PPG 1.17

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.22, combined xG 1.98 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Llaneros (H) 39.7%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +7.2%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.0%

Deportes Tolima (A) 30.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Llaneros face Deportes Tolima in Colombia - Primera A on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Llaneros a 40% chance, the draw 30% and Deportes Tolima 30%, so Llaneros are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Llaneros and 0.9 for Deportes Tolima (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Llaneros are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.17 for Deportes Tolima. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.6%.

Llaneros vs Deportes Tolima Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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