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Cucuta vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 9 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 23:10

Cucuta

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWL

UPCOMING

Deportivo Pasto

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 52% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.9%0-24.1%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.5%1-111.4%1-26.9%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.9%2-19.5%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.3%3-15.2%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.1%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 43.5% 2.30 +8.8%

Draw 24.7% 34.5% 2.90 -17.0%

Away win 28.1% 32.3% 3.10 -7.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 44.4% 2.25 +21.1%

Over 3.5 31.7% 25.0% 4.00 +26.8%

BTTS 54.6% 51.3% 1.95 +6.5%

Home O1.5 48.7% 42.0% 2.38 +15.9%

Away O1.5 36.2% 29.4% 3.40 +23.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 4.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 1–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cucuta1.7

Deportivo Pasto1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CUCUTA · PPG 1.45

DEPORTIVO PASTO · PPG 1.15

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

52%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cucuta (H) 47.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +8.8%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -17.0%

Deportivo Pasto (A) 28.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cucuta face Deportivo Pasto in Colombia - Primera A on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cucuta a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Deportivo Pasto 28%, so Cucuta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Cucuta and 1.2 for Deportivo Pasto (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cucuta are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.15 for Deportivo Pasto. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +26.8%.

Cucuta vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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