Today / Colombia - Primera A / Junior vs Jaguares

Junior vs Jaguares Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 9 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 01:30

Junior

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

UPCOMING

Jaguares

PPG 0.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 65% chance

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-13.5%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.5%1-18.0%1-22.8%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.2%2-19.2%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.1%3-17.1%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.9%4+-16.9%4+-22.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.7% 73.5% 1.36 -18.8%

Draw 19.2% 23.8% 4.20 -11.6%

Away win 21.1% 11.8% 8.50 +47.6%

Over 2.5 59.6% 54.1% 1.85 +10.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 30.8% 3.25 +18.3%

BTTS 52.9% 46.5% 2.15 +13.7%

Home O1.5 66.3% 63.7% 1.57 +4.1%

Away O1.5 18.8% 15.4% 6.50 +13.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 4.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.9%

H 60% / xG 2.3-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.2%

#2 1–1 8.0%

#3 1–0 11.5%

#4 3–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Junior2.3

Jaguares0.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

JUNIOR · PPG 1.62

JAGUARES · PPG 0.18

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

65%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.59 for Home, form 1.62 vs 0.18 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Junior (H) 59.7%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -18.8%

Draw 19.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -11.6%

Jaguares (A) 21.1%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +47.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Junior face Jaguares in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Junior a 60% chance, the draw 19% and Jaguares 21%, so Junior are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Junior and 0.7 for Jaguares (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Junior are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.18 for Jaguares. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +21.6%.

Junior vs Jaguares Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera A Predictions