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Chico vs Once Caldas Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 9 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 19:00

Chico

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDD

UPCOMING

Once Caldas

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-111.9%0-27.7%0-33.3%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.1%1-113.0%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.5%2-17.1%2-24.6%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.0%3-12.6%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% 26.3% 3.80 +18.2%

Draw 28.1% 30.3% 3.30 -4.4%

Away win 40.9% 50.3% 1.99 -18.6%

Over 2.5 50.4% 47.6% 2.10 +5.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.0% 3.85 +6.3%

BTTS 52.9% 52.6% 1.90 +0.5%

Home O1.5 30.8% 29.4% 3.40 +4.7%

Away O1.5 38.6% 46.5% 2.15 -17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 4.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.9%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–1 11.9%

#3 0–0 9.3%

#4 1–2 8.4%

#5 1–0 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chico1.1

Once Caldas1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CHICO · PPG 1.70

ONCE CALDAS · PPG 1.36

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.20, combined xG 2.38 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chico (H) 31.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +18.2%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.4%

Once Caldas (A) 40.9%

ODDS 1.99 · IMPLIED 50.3% EV -18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chico face Once Caldas in Colombia - Primera A on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chico a 31% chance, the draw 28% and Once Caldas 41%, so Once Caldas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Chico and 1.3 for Once Caldas (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chico are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.36 for Once Caldas. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.0%.

Chico vs Once Caldas Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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