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Deportivo Pereira vs Millonarios Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 9 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 23:10

Deportivo Pereira

PPG 0.70 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDWL

UPCOMING

Millonarios

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 51% chance

Model probability 51.2% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-113.0%0-28.5%0-33.7%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.0%1-113.0%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.0%2-16.5%2-24.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.7%3-12.2%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.7% 17.2% 5.80 +43.4%

Draw 27.5% 27.8% 3.60 -0.6%

Away win 42.8% 64.5% 1.55 -33.7%

Over 2.5 50.0% 48.1% 2.08 +4.0%

Over 3.5 27.9% 26.7% 3.75 +2.8%

BTTS 51.2% 51.3% 1.95 -0.2%

Home O1.5 30.8% 20.0% 5.00 +54.0%

Away O1.5 39.6% 55.6% 1.80 -28.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 4.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.2%

A 43% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–1 13.0%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 1–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Pereira1.0

Millonarios1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO PEREIRA · PPG 0.70

MILLONARIOS · PPG 0.92

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

51%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.30, combined xG 2.30 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Pereira (H) 29.7%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +43.4%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -0.6%

Millonarios (A) 42.8%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -33.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Pereira face Millonarios in Colombia - Primera A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Pereira a 30% chance, the draw 28% and Millonarios 43%, so Millonarios are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Deportivo Pereira and 1.3 for Millonarios (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Pereira are averaging 0.70 points per game versus 0.92 for Millonarios. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +54.0%.

Deportivo Pereira vs Millonarios Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

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